The paper titled "Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security" by Danzig explores the complexities and challenges associated with making predictions within the realm of national security. This work is particularly relevant to the United States Department of Defense, which heavily relies on forecasting to identify future threats and inform strategic decisions.

One of the central themes of the paper is the inherent unpredictability associated with long-term national security challenges. Danzig articulates that this unpredictability consistently complicates efforts to make reliable predictions. Consequently, the defense community must acknowledge the limitations of their predictive capabilities and prepare for unforeseen circumstances.

Danzig presents a structured set of ten propositions that examine the nature of prediction in this context. This includes discussing how the pressure to predict can lead to vulnerabilities if not approached with caution. The propositions underscore the necessity of developing adaptable strategies and emphasize that the best planning can only go so far in the face of uncertain future events.

If you wish to explore the detailed propositions and insights further, you can access the full paper at the following links:

1. Directly from DTIC
2. Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
3. Another PDF version available via ETH Zurich
4. Amazon listing for the book
5. Revisited discussion on Defense Tech and Acquisition
6. Summary on InsideDefense

These resources provide a thorough examination of Danzig's contributions to understanding the intersection of prediction, national security, and the adaptive strategies that may be employed to navigate an uncertain future.

Sources

[PDF] Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National ...Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National ...[PDF] Driving in the Dark Ten Propositions About Prediction and National ...Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Predictions and National ...Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National ...Driving in the Dark Revisited - Defense Tech and Acquisition'Driving In The Dark' | InsideDefense.com

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